Trump’s troubles with Iran could open the door to China

Beijing launches diplomatic salvo to woo Gulf leaders and bolster its influence in the region

China has held a flurry of meetings with Gulf leaders in a sign that Beijing is stepping up its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

The diplomatic salvo comes before a highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping when the US president is expected to attend the Apec conference in Shenzhen, China, on 18 and 19 November.

Xi held talks with Haitham bin Tariq, Oman’s sultan, in a historic state visit to Beijing on Monday.

President Xi’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, met Saudi Arabia’s national security adviser, Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, and the deputy secretary of Iran’s national security council, Ali Bagheri Kani.

Haitham’s trip to Beijing is the first time that an Omani head of state has visited China since the two countries established diplomatic relations nearly 50 years ago. According to a Chinese readout of the meeting, Xi warned that the Middle East should not become an arena for “great power rivalry and geopolitical conflicts”.

He said: “China has always been actively committed to stopping conflict and promoting peace, and hopes to contribute wisdom and solutions to resolving the regional security dilemma.”

Wang said after his separate talks that China was willing to “play a constructive role in helping the region emerge from the shadow of the pandemic and achieve lasting peace and stability”. In his meeting with Bagheri Kani, Wang said China supported Iran “in safeguarding its sovereignty and security”. According to China, the Iranian official said his country looked forward to China “playing a more important role in international and regional peace”.

When the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran in February, China was credited with pushing Tehran toward ceasefire talks in Pakistan, bolstering its status as a regional mediator.

Beijing’s influence in the Middle East is “no longer what it used to be”, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar of international relations. But he added: “Given China’s increased investment and trade in the region … its influence cannot be ignored.”

As the war has dragged on, China’s diplomatic efforts have been muted. Its biggest economic leverage over Iran is the fact that it buys about 90% of the Middle Eastern country’s crude oil exports. Between April and June, it slashed its crude imports by 30%, with the total in June plunging to the lowest level in a decade. That saved the global economy from a major spike in inflation. According to some estimates, China’s cut in oil imports shaved $30 or more off barrel prices of Brent crude, a global benchmark.

Beijing has otherwise done little to broker peace in the Middle East. That is partly because it does not see the conflict as being its responsibility to resolve. In March, Wang said the war “should never have happened” and that the US and Israel would find “no popular support” for the strikes.