Iran unveils ‘We will kill Trump’ banner – but US president may now be tempted to resume bombing

Ghalibaf added: “If the US government betrays the public will in order to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our ‘no’ comes with a nightmare.”

Yet Iran will also be asked to reflect on the wisdom of war by the Gulf monarchies, and possibly by Russia and China – the latter a country that finally seems to be stirring itself to find a solution to the blockade in the strait of Hormuz which is preventing badly needed Middle East oil exports from reaching its industries.

China tends to knock only on doors it knows are going to open, so it is probably testing the feasibility of a deal in which Iran “downblends” – or dilutes – its stockpile of highly enriched uranium inside Iran under international supervision. A Chinese special envoy is travelling to Oman, Iran and Saudi Arabia almost immediately.

These countries, some sympathetic to Iran’s predicament, can point out that if Tehran ever thought in the run-up to the elections Trump would capitulate and turn his carrier fleet around, it was mistaken. Some Iranian diplomats had indeed hoped that the prospect of defeat in the midterms, and pressure from within the Republican party, would have led Trump to make concessions to Tehran.

In fact, both sides and the chief mediator, Qatar, clearly did try to use polling day as a lever, but in the end neither retreated. Trump, for once, was true to his word and refused to allow the darkening opinion polls to reduce his determination to keep Iran in his vice. Confined to a holding bay of “neither war nor peace”, Trump’s priority was to keep the oil price as low as possible by repeatedly suggesting a settlement might be imminent.

For the next two months before the new Congress convenes in January – so reducing his budgetary options – Trump has greater latitude, and little accountability. The damage to the Republican party has been done and cannot be undone.

Unsurprisingly the Trump influencers who advocated for the war in the first place are piling on pressure to strike again quickly. Laura Loomer wrote on X: “Time for President Trump to deal with Iran once and for all. Just do it, Nothing to lose now. Finish the job.”

But the credibility of Loomer and her like has been severely damaged: in February, she advised Trump that regime change in Iran – “a little excursion” – could be as easy as knocking over the Maduro regime in Venezuela. Similarly, Benjamin Netanyahu is now touting intelligence showing that Iran is preparing to use chemical weapons. The ease with which the Israeli prime minister conjures up intelligence to justify another assault on Iran may by now have struck the White House.

Hillary Clinton, Trump’s old sparring partner, is one who thinks Trump will probably launch the long-delayed attack. She said: “I think he will feel trapped. He will feel angry and resentful and he will react aggressively.”

Having come so far, and paid so high a political price, Trump may in the next two months try to secure a legacy by finishing the job – however he defines that. He is convinced, as he told Fox News this week, that “Iran has very few missiles and drones left, and even less capacity to build any more”. He crowed: “We are dealing with total strength. We can end it any time.”

Unfortunately, such blithe optimism has been heard before.

Kaynak: The Guardian · Özgün metin İngilizcedir.