Wednesday briefing: What the Democrat midterms victory tells us about Trump’s future as president
Özet haber: In today’s newsletter: A thumping night for the Democrats has seen the party take control of Congress, altering the course of Trump’s second presidency
Amerika
In today’s newsletter: A thumping night for the Democrats has seen the party take control of Congress, altering the course of Trump’s second presidency
Good morning. While you were sleeping, a political earthquake hit the United States and it’s still climbing up the Richter scale. Voting in Alaska and Hawaii wrapped up only hours ago, but early midterm results streaming in from across the US are making history for the Democrats, as they cash in on Trump’s plummeting popularity.
Democrats have taken control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the scale of their successes are far larger, and the speed at which they’ve materialised far quicker, than had been expected. Some of the most hotly contested races of the night have already been called, with Democrats flipping seats in Texas, Ohio and Kansas.
Donald Trump has, with characteristic grace, already blamed the results on the fact that he wasn’t on the ballot, saying if he was “we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”. That’s despite the fact he spent the campaign telling voters to pretend it was his name on their paperwork. Later, he appeared on a social media post wearing a hat emblazoned with the word “VETO”.
Today’s First Edition has all you need to know this morning: the latest results, a guide to what comes next, and insights from our senior politics reporter for Guardian US, Chris Stein, in Washington. That’s after this morning’s other headlines.
EU trade deal | Andy Burnham is preparing to announce billions of pounds of trade deals with the EU covering everything from youth visas to pet passports under his vision of a much closer relationship with the bloc.
UK news | A “well-known individual” has failed in his bid to stop two media organisations from publishing allegations of inappropriate sexual activities, the high court has ruled.
UK politics | Reform UK’s leader on Hampshire county council has been charged with 12 counts of rape and one of distributing indecent images of a child.
UK news | King Charles has said that deepening his understanding of the horrors of slavery has made him more determined to address the wrongs of the past, as Caribbean leaders and campaigners intensified demands for an apology and reparations from Britain.
Climate crisis | Countries can start to break their dependence on fossil fuels now without needing to wait for new technologies or economic changes, Brazil’s government has said ahead of a global climate summit.
The results you’re waking up to mark a major turnaround for Republican rule. Since the start of Trump’s second presidential term, the party has controlled both chambers of Congress, the US legislative body. This, along with the conservative majority in the supreme court, has given the right free rein over all three branches of the US federal government. Just two years ago, the Democrats looked to be a party with no clear route back to power in Washington DC. Now, a swell of victories has seen them take control of Congress.
Some Democrat gains would have been par for the course: in 90% of midterm elections in the past 80 years, the president’s party has lost House seats. But these wins are massive. In the last couple of hours, results have come in thick and fast – with historic Senate wins for the Democrats in Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and South Carolina – where Democrat Annie Andrews made a shock win in a seat where a Democrat hasn’t been elected to the Senate since 1998. That means the party now has (at least) 53 seats, a clear majority in the 100-member house, and more victories expected.
It’s been a big night of firsts too – in Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan has become the first Native American US senator, in Wisconsin, Democrat David Crowley won the gubernatorial race, making history as the state’s first Black governor, and in Kansas, Adam Hamilton has become the first Democrat to win a US Senate seat in the state in nearly a century. The House is poised to have its first ever Black speaker in Hakeem Jeffries, who has declared that “America is back”. He said: “Today begins the great American comeback. The American people have spoken all across the land.”
Results from states on US Eastern Time have been making headlines already.
In Georgia, Democrat senator Jon Ossoff, who has been cited as a potential presidential contender in 2028, fought off a challenge from Mike Collins, a Trump-backed congressman. Ohio saw Democrat Sherrod Brown, who represented the state for 18 years before losing in 2024, returning to the US Senate.
If that’s not enough drama, turn your focus to Maine. Republican senator Susan Collins has been in office since 1997, despite the state itself often turning blue in presidential races. An hour ago, she lost her seat to Democrat Troy Jackson. In Mississippi, the US Senate race is on a knife’s edge with 97% of votes counted – it’s a seat that even the most optimistic of Democrats didn’t predict could be in reach.
Michigan, a swing state that has been one of this election cycle’s mostly fiercely contested, is also looking likely to be taken by the Democrats, according to projections. The senate seat here was already in Democratic control, though the state (narrowly) backed Trump in 2024. There are two key races here with Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official firmly on the left of the Democratic party, hoping to win a Senate seat. If successful, he’ll have fought off not just his Republican rival, former congressman Mike Rogers, but efforts by his former Democratic primary opponent, Haley Stevens, to secure a Republican victory.
And there’s Michigan’s 7th congressional district, where progressive candidate and co-founder of climate activist organisation the Sunrise Movement, William Lawrence, is taking on a Republican incumbent in a seat that oscillates red and blue by the finest of margins. “If they win, the left will argue that progressives and policies like Medicare for All can win in swing territory,” says Chris. “If they fail, centrists will blame left-wingers and the Democratic Socialists of America for hurting the party.”
In Texas Democratic state representative James Talarico executed an impressive campaign, and has beaten sleaze-and-scandal laden Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton – giving a clear signal of American inclinations. “Every billionaire mega donor, every trillionaire mega donor … power belongs to the people,” Talarico declared on his victory.
Texas also has 38 seats in the House of Representatives being contested, and the state has been a focal point for gerrymandering in recent years, with district boundaries redrawn to benefit Republicans. It was previously predicted these changes could hand the Republicans five extra seats but these gains looked not to have materialised. “It’s another sign Latino voters who broke Republican in 2024 won’t do so again,” says Chris.
It took 22 days for Iowa to announce its final results in 2024, but we have its results far sooner this time. The midwestern state hadn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, but a Dem running on centrist platforms has won here, along with the governorship and three House districts. Much like success in Michigan will be a progressive talking point, victories here will be central to the moderate Democrat narrative.
The west coast is solid ground for the Democrats. Nevada in particular saw Democrats target House seats they viewed as ripe for flipping. In California, redrawn district boundaries (a tit-for-tat response to Texas gerrymandering) will probably see Democrats pick up extra seats.
But really, it’s the Alaska Senate race where your attention should be focused later. Both seats are Republican, something Democratic candidate and seasoned politico Mary Peltola hopes to put an end to. Her chances looked good, entering the race hoping to capitalise on Alaskans anti-Trump sentiments. In the final stretch, however, she has faced allegations of mistreating staff and ballot stacking. And if this one’s close, we’ll be waiting a while: Alaska accepts ballots up to 15 days after the polling day.
All eyes are on the size of the majorities Democrats can now clock up. The Republican majority in the House is wafer thin, so it was widely expected to flip blue. “A good night for Democrats would have been a House majority in the double digits,” says Chris, alongside any size of Senate majority. It’s looking increasingly like both will come to pass.
The consequences could prove pivotal. Control of the Senate will now allow Democrats to reject Trump’s nominees for cabinet positions, ambassador posts and judicial appointments, including to the supreme court, just as two of its conservative justices are thought to be gearing up for retirement. Taking the House, meanwhile, will stymie the Republican agenda, ensuring legislation can only pass through the chamber with Democratic support. Dems will now also have the power to launch investigations into the Trump administration and to impeach federal officials. Hakeem Jeffries has already promised to “hold the crooks accountable”.
With their wins stacking up, there’ll be spin aplenty from both left and right within the Democratic party looking to shape the narrative, as its identity crisis continues. Yesterday’s vote was by all accounts a stonking success, but what next for the party is far from certain. “Their electoral coalition had fallen apart since the Obama years,” says Chris. The party has no clear leader, and remains unpopular, with low favourability ratings. An ideological skirmish will continue into next year’s Presidential primaries.
But, Chris adds, “this resounding victory shows how weak the Republicans are. For the Democrats, these wins are beyond their wildest dreams. Yes, they still have to find a leader, and yes, they have their unpopularity to deal with. Yes, they’ll have to deliver on their governing promises and it’s going to be a messy two years with Trump in the White House still.” But, “this is proof Dems can still win even in the reddest places.”
For Republicans, meanwhile, as the president enters lame-duck territory, the question of what the party looks like post-Trump will need to be answered. “This midterm was fundamentally a test of whether Americans are still behind Trump,” says Chris. By all accounts, they aren’t. “These results take the lustre off of his presidency. It’s a terrible night for him and the Republicans.” And that’s a reality no amount of Truth Social posting can hide.
I’ve not been to Kent before, but I love a hike and a pub trip to follow. Definitely now tempted to try the Darent Valley Path from Shoreham to Eynsford walk. Lysia Wright, newsletters team
I loved this piece by newsletters alum Hannah J Davies on the real-life couple behind the French Homer and Marge Simpson, who first met in their casting of Springfield’s famous lovebirds. Sam Coare, newsletters team
Christmas has to come early if you plan to make your gifts! (Although if somebody makes me a bee hotel I will be placing it somewhere far away from my house.) Lysia
I remember seeing Brian De Palma’s adaptation of Carrie for the first time, on TV. Jesse Hassenger’s celebration of 50 years of the iconic scream queen had me reliving the shock and horror I felt during that first teenage viewing. Sam
It was fun reading the John Lewis’s advert review which “managed to remember that it is a shop, and not simply a vessel for feelings of unfathomable sadness”. Lysia
Football | Manchester United were 2-0 down at half-time but a retaken penalty sparked a stirring comeback, ending in a 3-2 win against Roma.
Rugby union | Prem Rugby clubs’ collective losses and debt levels are continuing to increase despite growing interest from global companies and financiers.
Football | The Tenerife striker Jesús de Miguel has died following a collision with the Andorra goalkeeper Jesús Owono during a match in Spain’s second division.
“PM to reveal EU youth visa pact and trade deals worth billions”, is the Guardian’s front page today.
The Times splashes “Slavery was evil but we helped end it, says King”, the Mail writes “Britain has leading role in ending the slave trade, says Charles”, and the i Paper has “King says slavery was ‘monstrous’ – but stops short of offering apology”. The Express’s take is “Andy’s plan to say sorry for slave trade will cost us”.
Elsewhere, the Telegraph leads on “Calls to scrap ‘chilling’ trans law”, the FT says “Nvidia demands cut in clients’ China dealing to protect American AI lead”, the Sun splashes “‘Sex pest’ loses gag big” and the Mirror writes “Sex claim star loses bid to hide name”. Lastly Metro, on the fridge cyber-attack, says “Even our spooks are spooked”.
Why are fridges being hacked and what could be next?
Supermarket fridges and freezers in several European countries have malfunctioned after a reported cyber-attack, with their thermostats remotely cranked up. It is unclear who is behind the latest apparent attack but the EU has condemned what it said was ‘a deliberate attempt to disrupt our food supply’. It comes as the UK’s cybersecurity body warns AI-powered malicious software is ‘highly likely’ to be used in hacking attacks against the UK’s power stations, airports and hospitals by 2028. Lucy Hough speaks to global tech reporter Aisha Down.
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
After years of being terrified to move, one bike ride changed Patty Azzarello’s life. When Azzarello was 10 years old she was diagnosed with scoliosis, severe lordosis, where the spine is excessively curved, and spondylolisthesis, meaning a vertebrae was out of place.
She was told that a simple bump or fall could sever her spinal cord, leaving her paralysed. This led to years of anxiety about exercising.
When she moved to Colorado in her 30s, a co-worker invited Azzarello on a bike ride and she accepted, not realising it was a 20 mile ride. Azzarello realised that her body was stronger than she thought. Since then, she’s hiked the Alps and cycled for entire days. Today, at 60, Azzarello remains incredibly active. “I am no longer ashamed of my body,” she says. “It has become my ally.”
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And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
